KAA Gent vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 0.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $454 held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$453.83

Combined PnL

-$20.83

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$354.43

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$1.04

Under4 traders

Total Value$99.4

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL-$21.87

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Overavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.85	+$0.15	99% 6841-38 (6879)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$75	$56.25	-$18.75	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 91¢	$53.69	$54.58	+$0.89	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$42.45	$39.8	-$2.65	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 8.8¢	$2.8	$2.4	-$0.4	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.01	$0.95	-$0.06	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

looppau

Over

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

99%

6841-38 (6879)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$53.69

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.45

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$2.65

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.