Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $684 held · ended Oct 25

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$683.82

Combined PnL

-$98.79

Smart Money Entry

30¢ → 7¢

-77% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$425.53

Total Shares449

Combined PnL-$62.94

Yes6 traders

Total Value$258.28

Total Shares979

Combined PnL-$35.85

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87¢	$344.31	$276.73	-$67.58	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$267.12	$226.8	-$40.32	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 69¢	$78.66	$79.8	+$1.14	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 90¢	$49.95	$49.67	-$0.28	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$13.33	$17.07	+$3.74	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$5	$9.38	+$4.38	53% 913-797 (1710)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$7.48	$7.14	-$0.34	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.08	$6.84	-$0.24	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.75	$6.03	+$0.29	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 69¢	$2.23	$2.26	+$0.03	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.71	$2.09	+$0.38	46% 1535-1785 (3320)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$344.31

Value

$276.73

PnL

-$67.58

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$267.12

Value

$226.8

PnL

-$40.32

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$78.66

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$1.14

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

foooool<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.67

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$13.33

Value

$17.07

PnL

+$3.74

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$4.38

Record

53%

913-797 (1710)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.34

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.08

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.