Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will KAA Gent win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 38¢ · $984 held · ended Oct 25

Yes63¢No37¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$983.73

Combined PnL

-$9.78

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 37.5¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$409.27

Total Shares924

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes6 traders

Total Value$438.44

Total Shares852

Combined PnL-$10.11

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 37¢	$237.16	$240.37	+$3.2	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
cassandra.torchlightCTR	Noavg 59.9¢	$150	$152.66	-$2.34	51% 238-229 (467)
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 36¢	$134.32	$145.51	+$11.19	50% 194-191 (385)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$139.28	$136.01	+$0.8	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$71	$72.87	+$0.93
└ No leg	Noavg 61.1¢	$63.28	$63.15	-$0.13
FO foooool	Yesavg 61.8¢	$124	$125.82	+$1.83	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
oieshfn345<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$96.52	$98.13	+$1.61	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$81.16	$56.94	-$24.23	64% 874-492 (1366)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$9.65	$9.06	-$0.59	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$7.79	$7.7	-$0.09	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.31	$6.11	-$0.2	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.97	+$0.07	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.68	$2.44	-$0.24	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$237.16

Value

$240.37

PnL

+$3.2

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

cassandra.torchlightCTR

Invested

$150

Value

$152.66

PnL

-$2.34

Record

51%

238-229 (467)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$134.32

Value

$145.51

PnL

+$11.19

Record

50%

194-191 (385)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$139.28

Value

$136.01

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Both legs:

Invested

$124

Value

$125.82

PnL

+$1.83

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

oieshfn345<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.52

Value

$98.13

PnL

+$1.61

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.16

Value

$56.94

PnL

-$24.23

Record

64%

874-492 (1366)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.06

PnL

-$0.59

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.09

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.