Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
KAA Gent leading at halftime?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 8.5¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$5.3K
-$11.66
68.7¢ → 8.5¢
-88% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Noavg 68.6¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$2.33 | 50% 1855-1850 (3705) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812 | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$15.92 | 33% 68-135 (203) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 69.6¢ | $217.73 | $214.41 | -$3.32 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 70¢ | $168.49 | $164.88 | -$3.61 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 68.5¢ | $137 | $137 | +$0 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $48.72 | $30.41 | -$18.31 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
Invested
$2,788.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$2.33
Record
50%
1855-1850 (3705)
Invested
$1,927
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$15.92
Record
33%
68-135 (203)
Invested
$217.73
Value
$214.41
PnL
-$3.32
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$168.49
Value
$164.88
PnL
-$3.61
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$137
Value
$137
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$48.72
Value
$30.41
PnL
-$18.31
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.