Will KAA Gent vs. RSC Anderlecht end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 76¢ · $296 held · ended Oct 25

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$296.13

Combined PnL

$7.88

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 75.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$257.03

Total Shares311

Combined PnL+$7.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$39.1

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$0.28

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 75¢	$175.93	$173.03	-$2.9	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 70¢	$70	$80	+$10	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$25.5	+$0.5	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$6.72	$7.2	+$0.48	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5.5	$4.4	-$1.1	53% 913-797 (1710)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$4	+$0.5	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.6	$2	+$0.4	64% 874-492 (1366)

oieshfn345

Invested

$175.93

Value

$173.03

PnL

-$2.9

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$70

Value

$80

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.48

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

913-797 (1710)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

64%

874-492 (1366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.