KAA Gent vs. RSC Anderlecht: Both Teams to Score
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $192 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$191.92
$15.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $124.15 | $133 | +$8.85 | 51% 6747-6475 (13222) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $99.18 | $94.86 | -$4.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $24.97 | $38.14 | +$13.17 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $20.36 | $31.58 | +$11.22 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $23.37 | $27.34 | +$3.97 | 56% 6406-5129 (11535) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.