Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

KRC Genk vs. Standard Liege: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 40¢ · $327 held · ended Oct 25

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$326.56

Combined PnL

-$28.31

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 40¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$206.2

Total Shares515

Combined PnL-$1.2

Under2 traders

Total Value$120.37

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$27.11

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 36.6¢	$165.61	$181.2	-$0.26	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 74.8¢	$137.8	$110.61	-$27.19	81% 1898-451 (2349)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$22.5	$25	-$0.94	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$9.68	$9.76	+$0.08	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$165.61

Value

$181.2

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$137.8

Value

$110.61

PnL

-$27.19

Record

81%

1898-451 (2349)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$0.94

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.