KRC Genk vs. Standard Liege: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$225.79
64¢ → 100¢
+56% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 33.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$30.96 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 33.5¢ | $904.84 | $809.77 | -$95.07 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63¢ | $577 | $641.11 | +$64.11 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 65¢ | $542.29 | $584 | +$41.71 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 53.4¢ | $619.09 | $355.47 | -$263.62 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 60¢ | $119.99 | $141.99 | -$1 | 56% 6354-5091 (11445) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $2.66 | $3.79 | +$0.03 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $6.16 | $3.25 | -$2.91 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
Invested
$1,481.84
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$30.96
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$542.29
Value
$584
PnL
+$41.71
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$619.09
Value
$355.47
PnL
-$263.62
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
0xheavy888Invested
$119.99
Value
$141.99
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
6354-5091 (11445)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$0.03
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$2.91
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.