Will Standard Liege win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$120.2

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares17,427

Combined PnL+$123.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.13

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$2.85

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 96.7¢	$15.1K	$15.4K	+$228.94	93% 713-53 (766)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 99.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$163.89	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
oieshfn345	Noavg 90.2¢	$515.44	$536.21	+$40.67	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 80¢	$75	$92.44	+$17.44	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Noavg 79¢	$39.2	$48.97	+$0.74	47% 1976-2210 (4186)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$35.27	$34.41	-$0.86	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.79	$1.87	+$0.07	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.7	$0.21	-$2.49	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$0.48	$0.05	-$0.43	55% 43532-35822 (79354)

Momo63

Invested

$15,073.46

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$228.94

Record

93%

713-53 (766)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,285.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$163.89

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

oieshfn345

Invested

$515.44

Value

$536.21

PnL

+$40.67

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

foooool<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$92.44

PnL

+$17.44

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$48.97

PnL

+$0.74

Record

47%

1976-2210 (4186)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$35.27

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$0.86

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$2.49

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.43

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.