Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$4.6K
-$3.33
43¢ → 43¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$0 | 68% 30977-14876 (45853) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 43.5¢ | $174 | $172 | -$2 | 56% 6332-5072 (11404) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $58.52 | $57.19 | -$1.33 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $50.31 | $50.31 | +$0 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
Invested
$4,273.34
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
30977-14876 (45853)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$174
Value
$172
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
6332-5072 (11404)
Invested
$58.52
Value
$57.19
PnL
-$1.33
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$50.31
Value
$50.31
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1429-1045 (2474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.