Club Brugge vs. St. Truidense VV: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 53¢ · $334 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$333.77
-$1.18
69.3¢ → 53¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 64¢ | $128 | $142 | -$1 | 56% 6364-5100 (11464) |
FO foooool | Underavg 71¢ | $110.21 | $117.42 | +$7.21 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $49.85 | $42.64 | -$7.21 | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $30.84 | $30.84 | -$0 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $1.05 | $0.87 | -$0.18 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
0xheavy888Invested
$128
Value
$142
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
6364-5100 (11464)
Invested
$110.21
Value
$117.42
PnL
+$7.21
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$42.64
PnL
-$7.21
Record
52%
16298-14844 (31142)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$30.84
Value
$30.84
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43593-35871 (79464)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$0.18
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.