Club Brugge vs. St. Truidense VV: O/U 3.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 56¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 25

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$186.9

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares21,834

Combined PnL+$137.5

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares9,840

Combined PnL+$49.4

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 55.9¢	$11.8K	$12.0K	+$137.5	48% 114-124 (238)
RN1CTR	Underavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$50	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$969.61	$979.17	+$9.55	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$867.56	$854.93	-$12.63	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$464.8	$464.8	+$0	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$242.8	$244.8	+$2
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$222	$220	-$2
HG hg5521199	Overavg 55¢	$349.8	$349.8	+$0	48% 55-59 (114)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$123.51	$125.1	+$1.59	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$91.41	$90.37	-$1.04	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$88	$90	+$2	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$5.86	$5.79	-$0.07	59% 13895-9640 (23535)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$11,839.5

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$137.5

Record

48%

114-124 (238)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$969.61

Value

$979.17

PnL

+$9.55

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$867.56

Value

$854.93

PnL

-$12.63

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$464.8

Value

$464.8

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

Both legs:

Invested

$349.8

Value

$349.8

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

55-59 (114)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$123.51

Value

$125.1

PnL

+$1.59

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.41

Value

$90.37

PnL

-$1.04

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88

Value

$90

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.