Club Brugge vs. St. Truidense VV: O/U 2.5

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 90¢ · $315 held · ended Oct 25

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$314.71

Combined PnL

$46.02

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$228.75

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$61.47

Under3 traders

Total Value$85.96

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$15.45

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 75.7¢	$167.28	$228.75	+$61.47	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$75	$75	+$0	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$22.8	$9.5	-$13.3	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 24.7¢	$3.61	$1.46	-$2.15	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$167.28

Value

$228.75

PnL

+$61.47

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$75

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$13.3

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.61

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$2.15

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.