Will St. Truidense VV win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$263.46

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 99.4¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,377

Combined PnL-$246.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$99.58

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL-$16.53

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 95.1¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$40.4	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 94.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$124.73	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95.3¢	$549	$394.62	-$154.38	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
oieshfn345	Noavg 89.8¢	$305.8	$307.6	+$1.8	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$115.66	$99.18	-$16.48	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 99.1¢	$101.96	$89.57	-$12.38	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$78.24	$79.21	+$0.97	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 89¢	$37.38	$38.64	+$1.26	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 91¢	$24.6	$24.87	+$0.14	53% 559-505 (1064)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.4	-$0.05	55% 4850-4034 (8884)

RN1

Invested

$5,703.85

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$40.4

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,025.69

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$124.73

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$549

Value

$394.62

PnL

-$154.38

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

oieshfn345

Invested

$305.8

Value

$307.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.66

Value

$99.18

PnL

-$16.48

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

SnakeBall

Invested

$101.96

Value

$89.57

PnL

-$12.38

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$78.24

Value

$79.21

PnL

+$0.97

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$37.38

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$1.26

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.87

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

559-505 (1064)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

4850-4034 (8884)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.