Spread: Club Brugge (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold St. Truidense VV (67%) · St. Truidense VV at 81¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
St. Truidense VV
3
St. Truidense VV 67%
$4.3K
$218.93
81.7¢ → 81¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSt. Truidense VV at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | St. Truidense VVavg 81.6¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$222.75 | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
FO foooool | St. Truidense VVavg 82.4¢ | $250.4 | $246.16 | -$4.24 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 16.3¢ | $3.99 | $4.66 | +$0.42 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.