Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold St. Truidense VV, while the market favors Club Brugge (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Club Brugge (-2.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold St. Truidense VV (50%) · St. Truidense VV at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
St. Truidense VV
4
St. Truidense VV 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$10.65
67.1¢ → 44¢
-34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSt. Truidense VV at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Club Brugge 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | St. Truidense VVavg 67.2¢ | $388.22 | $387.27 | -$0.95 | 56% 6364-5100 (11464) |
UP UpTheBlues | Club Bruggeavg 33.8¢ | $361.04 | $373.42 | +$12.38 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | St. Truidense VVavg 69¢ | $402.26 | $284.95 | -$117.31 | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
| └ St. Truidense VV leg | St. Truidense VVavg 69¢ | $319.6 | $201.55 | -$118.05 | |
| └ Club Brugge leg | Club Bruggeavg 56¢ | $82.66 | $83.4 | +$0.74 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | St. Truidense VVavg 66.4¢ | $61.78 | $60.47 | -$1.31 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 32.5¢ | $7 | $7.53 | +$0.54 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$388.22
Value
$387.27
PnL
-$0.95
Record
56%
6364-5100 (11464)
Invested
$361.04
Value
$373.42
PnL
+$12.38
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
Invested
$402.26
Value
$284.95
PnL
-$117.31
Record
52%
16298-14844 (31142)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.78
Value
$60.47
PnL
-$1.31
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$0.54
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.