Club Brugge vs. St. Truidense VV: Both Teams to Score

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 62¢ · $258 held · ends Oct 25

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$257.72

Combined PnL

-$1.96

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$248

Total Shares400

Combined PnL-$2

No4 traders

Total Value$9.73

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 62.5¢	$250	$248	-$2	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$7.22	$7.22	+$0	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.14	$1.14	+$0	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$0.74	$0.76	+$0.01	50% 7758-7812 (15570)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$0.57	$0.61	+$0.03	54% 13809-11592 (25401)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$248

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

7758-7812 (15570)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.