Will Club Brugge win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 97¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 25

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares28,193

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares10,377

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Yesavg 94.9¢	$15.3K	$12.4K	$-2.9K	93% 717-56 (773)
p1252ARB<$100	Yesavg 76.5¢	$8.7K	$10.4K	+$1.7K	53% 92-82 (174)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.5¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$50
└ No leg	Noavg 6.2¢	$620.9	$2.3K	+$1.7K
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 95¢	$7.2K	$6.7K	-$461.79	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
RN1	Yesavg 88.6¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$24.84	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 11.8¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$1.1K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$612.24	$1.2K	+$601.52	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
└ No leg	Noavg 4.6¢	$170.44	$851.86	+$681.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 94¢	$441.8	$361.9	-$79.9
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.25	65% 1538-823 (2361)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 74.9¢	$930.03	$1.1K	+$137.45	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74.9¢	$698.81	$718.23	+$19.42
└ No leg	Noavg 15.2¢	$231.22	$349.24	+$118.02
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 23.6¢	$209.29	$187.53	-$21.76	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
└ No leg	Noavg 23.6¢	$109.29	$106.48	-$2.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 95¢	$100	$81.05	-$18.95
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$23.46	$22.49	-$0.98	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.85	-$0.03	57% 30-23 (53)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 23.3¢	$10.24	$1.54	-$8.7	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

Momo63

Yes

Invested

$15,285.42

Value

$12.4K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

93%

717-56 (773)

p1252ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$8,719.13

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

92-82 (174)

Both legs:

Yes$8,098.2376.5¢+$50

No$620.96.2¢+$1.7K

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$7,179.47

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$461.79

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,741.41

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$24.84

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,661.75

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$612.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$601.52

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

Both legs:

No$170.444.6¢+$681.42

Yes$441.894¢-$79.9

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,058.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.25

Record

65%

1538-823 (2361)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$930.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$137.45

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

Both legs:

Yes$698.8174.9¢+$19.42

No$231.2215.2¢+$118.02

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$209.29

Value

$187.53

PnL

-$21.76

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

Both legs:

No$109.2923.6¢-$2.81

Yes$10095¢-$18.95

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$23.46

Value

$22.49

PnL

-$0.98

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$10.24

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$8.7

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.