Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.0K
$518.94
67.4¢ → 80¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 67.6¢ | $2.8K | $3.4K | +$552.6 | 51% 364-348 (712) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Noavg 64.2¢ | $193.08 | $261.8 | +$68.72 | 70% 398-172 (570) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 68.8¢ | $134.88 | $214.86 | +$12.78 | 80% 10246-2623 (12869) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $320.49 | $97.24 | -$115.17 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
XieGuangKunInvested
$2,830.47
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$552.6
Record
51%
364-348 (712)
Invested
$193.08
Value
$261.8
PnL
+$68.72
Record
70%
398-172 (570)
Invested
$134.88
Value
$214.86
PnL
+$12.78
Record
80%
10246-2623 (12869)
Invested
$320.49
Value
$97.24
PnL
-$115.17
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.