Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$87.46

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 87.5¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,453

Combined PnL+$238.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$132.85

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL-$151.3

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 73.4¢	$913.41	$1.1K	+$155.69	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 71.8¢	$592.15	$177.38	+$82.81	53% 5695-4971 (10666)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$284.4	$132.17	-$152.23	32% 3859-8035 (11894)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$0.67	$0.92	+$0.26	42% 1630-2223 (3853)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.06	$0.68	+$0.93	48% 2018-2216 (4234)

balthazar

Invested

$913.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$155.69

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$592.15

Value

$177.38

PnL

+$82.81

Record

53%

5695-4971 (10666)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$284.4

Value

$132.17

PnL

-$152.23

Record

32%

3859-8035 (11894)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.26

Record

42%

1630-2223 (3853)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.93

Record

48%

2018-2216 (4234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.