Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $204 held · ends Oct 30

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$204.45

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

17.9¢ → 1.8¢

-90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$154.61

Total Shares7,908

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No1 trader

Total Value$49.84

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$15.08

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

574h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 20¢	$920	$87.4	-$832.6	77% 1383-406 (1789)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$34.77	$49.84	+$15.08	48% 4391-4842 (9233)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$460	$43	-$422	65% 851-460 (1311)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$24.41	$21.19	-$3.23	50% 1630-1606 (3236)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$12.44	$3.02	-$9.42	—

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$920

Value

$87.4

PnL

-$832.6

Record

77%

1383-406 (1789)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$49.84

PnL

+$15.08

Record

48%

4391-4842 (9233)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$460

Value

$43

PnL

-$422

Record

65%

851-460 (1311)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.41

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$3.23

Record

50%

1630-1606 (3236)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$9.42

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

574h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3305.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

3405.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.