Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.47
-$976.27
19.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
57h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77CTR | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $355.17 | $0.91 | -$354.26 | 53% 3405-3066 (6471) |
ME merodCTR | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $225.71 | $0.56 | -$225.15 | 54% 2217-1882 (4099) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $224.31 | $0.56 | -$223.75 | 77% 1369-405 (1774) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $99.79 | $0.25 | -$99.54 | 77% 8491-2497 (10988) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $73.77 | $0.18 | -$73.58 | 49% 3341-3484 (6825) |
Invested
$355.17
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$354.26
Record
53%
3405-3066 (6471)
Invested
$225.71
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$225.15
Record
54%
2217-1882 (4099)
Invested
$224.31
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$223.75
Record
77%
1369-405 (1774)
Invested
$99.79
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$99.54
Record
77%
8491-2497 (10988)
Invested
$73.77
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$73.58
Record
49%
3341-3484 (6825)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.