Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$5.7K
$1.4K
71.8¢ → 98.3¢
+37% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 perfectnostalgia | Yesavg 73¢ | $4.2K | $5.3K | +$1.4K | 55% 331-269 (600) |
 probability | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $186 | $346.15 | +$157.88 | 42% 1335-1807 (3142) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.4¢ | $57.47 | $4.94 | -$52.54 | — |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 20.3¢ | $40.56 | $2.2 | -$37.06 | 72% 1532-583 (2115) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.