Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kane (100%) · Kane at 85¢ · $552 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Kane
4
Kane 100%
$551.97
$51.13
76.6¢ → 84.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKane at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cambridgeisaac | Kaneavg 79¢ | $263.25 | $281.57 | +$18.33 | 57% 1083-811 (1894) |
CR CrazyDeLaCaks | Kaneavg 76.8¢ | $199.6 | $219.7 | +$20.1 | 32% 323-700 (1023) |
 3648393489047<$100 | Kaneavg 65¢ | $26 | $33.8 | +$7.6 | 61% 1029-665 (1694) |
SN Snoorrason<$100 | Kaneavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $16.9 | +$5.1 | 39% 1119-1739 (2858) |
cambridgeisaacInvested
$263.25
Value
$281.57
PnL
+$18.33
Record
57%
1083-811 (1894)
Invested
$199.6
Value
$219.7
PnL
+$20.1
Record
32%
323-700 (1023)
3648393489047<$100Invested
$26
Value
$33.8
PnL
+$7.6
Record
61%
1029-665 (1694)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$16.9
PnL
+$5.1
Record
39%
1119-1739 (2858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.