SK Sturm Graz vs. SV Ried: O/U 3.5

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$6.88

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$548.42

Total Shares914

Combined PnL+$6.88

Over1 trader

Total Value$110.37

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 56.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$29.79	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.2¢	$972.78	$1.0K	+$65.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.6¢	$921.45	$885.77	-$35.68
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 59.2¢	$541.54	$548.42	+$6.88	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41.5¢	$110.37	$110.37	+$0	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$92.11	$93.52	+$1.41	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$56.16	$56.16	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$40.15	$37.36	+$1.41

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,894.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$29.79

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

Both legs:

Under$972.7856.2¢+$65.47

Over$921.4541.6¢-$35.68

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$541.54

Value

$548.42

PnL

+$6.88

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$110.37

Value

$110.37

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$92.11

Value

$93.52

PnL

+$1.41

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Both legs:

Under$56.1660¢+$0

Over$40.1543¢+$1.41

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.