Will SV Ried win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$130.64

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 71.4¢

+37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,058

Combined PnL-$126.48

No2 traders

Total Value$20.1

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$4.16

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$1.1K	$982.91	-$150.85	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.5¢	$804.31	$653.21	-$151.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.1¢	$329.45	$329.7	+$0.25
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 22.2¢	$241.55	$916.56	+$675.01	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 68.8¢	$1.4K	$553.23	-$801.49	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$22.66	$18.51	-$4.15	55% 1302-1044 (2346)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.6	$1.59	-$0.02	55% 4845-4030 (8875)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,133.76

Value

$982.91

PnL

-$150.85

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

No$804.3188.5¢-$151.1

Yes$329.4528.1¢+$0.25

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$241.55

Value

$916.56

PnL

+$675.01

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,354.72

Value

$553.23

PnL

-$801.49

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Invested

$22.66

Value

$18.51

PnL

-$4.15

Record

55%

1302-1044 (2346)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.