Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SK Sturm Graz win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
12
Yes 33%
$13.8K
$2.9K
66.9¢ → 0.8¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MagnabelliCTR | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $4.8K | $5.7K | +$857.79 | 78% 559-160 (719) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 38.3¢ | $1.5K | $3.9K | +$2.4K | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 RN1 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $1.6K | $3.4K | +$1.8K | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 39.1¢ | $636.79 | $294.8 | -$341.99 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
GO gotozer0 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $1.4K | $240.36 | $-1.1K | 65% 225-120 (345) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 29¢ | $272.31 | $150.24 | -$122.07 | 50% 7761-7812 (15573) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $55.59 | $67.68 | +$12.09 | 55% 1302-1044 (2346) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $39.83 | $28.08 | -$11.75 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 28.6¢ | $47.55 | $26.63 | -$20.92 | 55% 4845-4030 (8875) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $66.35 | $18.59 | -$47.76 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $552.38 | $15.95 | -$536.43 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $7.66 | $12.14 | +$4.48 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
Invested
$4,800
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$857.79
Record
78%
559-160 (719)
Invested
$1,534.14
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
RN1Invested
$1,575.09
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
VeryLucky888Invested
$636.79
Value
$294.8
PnL
-$341.99
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$1,365
Value
$240.36
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
65%
225-120 (345)
Invested
$272.31
Value
$150.24
PnL
-$122.07
Record
50%
7761-7812 (15573)
Invested
$55.59
Value
$67.68
PnL
+$12.09
Record
55%
1302-1044 (2346)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$39.83
Value
$28.08
PnL
-$11.75
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Invested
$47.55
Value
$26.63
PnL
-$20.92
Record
55%
4845-4030 (8875)
Invested
$66.35
Value
$18.59
PnL
-$47.76
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Invested
$552.38
Value
$15.95
PnL
-$536.43
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$7.66
Value
$12.14
PnL
+$4.48
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.