Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LASK Linz vs. FC Salzburg: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$21.08

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 48¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,535

Combined PnL+$24.14

Under2 traders

Total Value$314.65

Total Shares605

Combined PnL-$3.05

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 44¢	$660.79	$720.86	+$7.51	50% 7758-7812 (15570)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$479.12	$495.74	+$16.63	59% 2262-1574 (3836)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53.7¢	$373.5	$234	-$1.5	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Underavg 53¢	$82.2	$80.65	-$1.55	69% 4259-1919 (6178)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$660.79

Value

$720.86

PnL

+$7.51

Record

50%

7758-7812 (15570)

Saber-greedCTR

Over

Invested

$479.12

Value

$495.74

PnL

+$16.63

Record

59%

2262-1574 (3836)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$373.5

Value

$234

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Under

Invested

$82.2

Value

$80.65

PnL

-$1.55

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.