Will LASK Linz win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $488 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$487.89
-$26.19
54.9¢ → 52¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $413.31 | $367.69 | -$19.26 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $99.64 | $94.2 | -$5.43 | 53% 13584-12026 (25610) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $27.5 | $26 | -$1.5 | 52% 5511-5119 (10630) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.