Seoul: Beibit Zhukayev vs Coleman Wong
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Coleman Wong (75%) · Coleman Wong at 82¢ · $838 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Coleman Wong
4
Coleman Wong 75%
$837.84
$7.48
81.5¢ → 82¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralColeman Wong at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Coleman Wongavg 81¢ | $418.34 | $423.35 | +$2.43 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Coleman Wongavg 82¢ | $248.07 | $248.07 | +$0 | 55% 1649-1351 (3000) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Coleman Wongavg 82¢ | $119.04 | $97.02 | -$0.6 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
 12xmrboltCTR<$100 | Beibit Zhukayevavg 17¢ | $63.76 | $69.4 | +$5.64 | 44% 239-302 (541) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$418.34
Value
$423.35
PnL
+$2.43
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$248.07
Value
$248.07
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1649-1351 (3000)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$119.04
Value
$97.02
PnL
-$0.6
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
12xmrboltCTR<$100Invested
$63.76
Value
$69.4
PnL
+$5.64
Record
44%
239-302 (541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.