Ningbo: Tianhui Zhang vs Harold Mayot

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Harold Mayot (47%) · Harold Mayot at 87¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3

Tianhui Zhang13¢Harold Mayot87¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Harold Mayot

Consensus Traders

Harold Mayot 47%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$356.22

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 87.1¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHarold Mayot at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Harold Mayot

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tianhui Zhang13%

Harold Mayot87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Harold Mayot8 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares9,675

Combined PnL-$478.2

Tianhui Zhang9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares14,196

Combined PnL+$834.42

Harold Mayot — 47%Tianhui Zhang — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Harold Mayotavg 91.1¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$363.57	49% 18348-18778 (37126)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Harold Mayotavg 95.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$47.17	52% 13445-12294 (25739)
EF efntrick	Harold Mayotavg 97¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0.14	48% 3593-3842 (7435)
poshposh	Harold Mayotavg 95.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$55.11	60% 8954-5928 (14882)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Tianhui Zhangavg 6¢	$186.58	$577.36	+$390.78	60% 3873-2627 (6500)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Tianhui Zhangavg 4¢	$118.63	$545.2	+$434.46	58% 2716-1946 (4662)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Tianhui Zhangavg 5.3¢	$79.5	$217.69	+$154.92	56% 1772-1386 (3158)
BI BillBenter2026	Harold Mayotavg 94.1¢	$124.54	$109	-$15.35	58% 18270-13425 (31695)
PA Paul973973<$100	Harold Mayotavg 92.3¢	$100	$99.29	-$0.71	89% 862-106 (968)
tradecraftCTR	Tianhui Zhangavg 5.3¢	$159	$66	-$93	52% 5793-5417 (11210)
TRCMCTR	Tianhui Zhangavg 5¢	$148.53	$66	-$82.53	55% 3886-3117 (7003)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Tianhui Zhangavg 3.9¢	$20	$43.54	+$23.54	67% 22984-11384 (34368)
VeryLucky888<$100	Harold Mayotavg 92¢	$48.8	$42.88	+$3.85	58% 40278-29060 (69338)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Tianhui Zhangavg 7.1¢	$16.83	$30.33	+$13.5	54% 2389-2024 (4413)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Harold Mayotavg 82.5¢	$16.5	$16.5	+$0	59% 29883-20610 (50493)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Tianhui Zhangavg 11¢	$11	$2.9	-$8.1	51% 1163-1096 (2259)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Tianhui Zhangavg 5.8¢	$0.62	$1.48	+$0.86	62% 13567-8386 (21953)

omnibus-076daa

Harold Mayot

Invested

$4,668.88

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$363.57

Record

49%

18348-18778 (37126)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Harold Mayot

Invested

$1,571.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$47.17

Record

52%

13445-12294 (25739)

efntrick

Harold Mayot

Invested

$1,290.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

3593-3842 (7435)

poshposh

Harold Mayot

Invested

$1,316.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$55.11

Record

60%

8954-5928 (14882)

thestingsnakeCTR

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$186.58

Value

$577.36

PnL

+$390.78

Record

60%

3873-2627 (6500)

flatbarrelCTR

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$118.63

Value

$545.2

PnL

+$434.46

Record

58%

2716-1946 (4662)

SchruteBucksCTR

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$79.5

Value

$217.69

PnL

+$154.92

Record

56%

1772-1386 (3158)

BillBenter2026

Harold Mayot

Invested

$124.54

Value

$109

PnL

-$15.35

Record

58%

18270-13425 (31695)

Paul973973<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$100

Value

$99.29

PnL

-$0.71

Record

89%

862-106 (968)

tradecraftCTR

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$159

Value

$66

PnL

-$93

Record

52%

5793-5417 (11210)

TRCMCTR

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$148.53

Value

$66

PnL

-$82.53

Record

55%

3886-3117 (7003)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$20

Value

$43.54

PnL

+$23.54

Record

67%

22984-11384 (34368)

VeryLucky888<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$48.8

Value

$42.88

PnL

+$3.85

Record

58%

40278-29060 (69338)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$16.83

Value

$30.33

PnL

+$13.5

Record

54%

2389-2024 (4413)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

29883-20610 (50493)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$11

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$8.1

Record

51%

1163-1096 (2259)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Tianhui Zhang

Invested

$0.62

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.86

Record

62%

13567-8386 (21953)

Research grade

NeutralHarold Mayot at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Harold Mayot

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Harold Mayot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.6%

87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.