Sioux Falls: Gavin Young vs Daniil Ostapenkov

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Gavin Young (56%) · Gavin Young at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Gavin Young61¢Daniil Ostapenkov39¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gavin Young

Consensus Traders

Gavin Young 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$583.7

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 60.5¢

+44% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGavin Young at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Young

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gavin Young61%

Daniil Ostapenkov40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gavin Young5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,256

Combined PnL+$786.83

Daniil Ostapenkov4 traders

Total Value$949.98

Total Shares2,104

Combined PnL-$203.13

Gavin Young — 56%Daniil Ostapenkov — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Gavin Youngavg 42.5¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$531.8	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
HO HomeRunHazard	Gavin Youngavg 39.4¢	$660.87	$913.85	+$252.98	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
EF efntrickCTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 51.9¢	$763.72	$596.26	-$167.46	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 72.1¢	$277.5	$228.6	-$34.1	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 46¢	$112.79	$111.57	-$1.23	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
TRCMARB<$100	Gavin Youngavg 44.7¢	$60.75	$60.95	+$0.2	56% 3878-3105 (6983)
└ Daniil Ostapenkov leg	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 50¢	$25	$31.75	+$6.75
└ Gavin Young leg	Gavin Youngavg 44.7¢	$35.75	$29.2	-$6.55
VeryLucky888<$100	Gavin Youngavg 58¢	$58	$60	+$2	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
0xheavy888<$100	Gavin Youngavg 59.5¢	$23.8	$24	+$0.2	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
RN1CTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 41¢	$13.9	$13.56	-$0.34	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
HRTrading<$100	Gavin Youngavg 39¢	$1.23	$1.09	-$0.14	55% 2163-1776 (3939)

UpTheBlues

Gavin Young

Invested

$1,885.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$531.8

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

HomeRunHazard

Gavin Young

Invested

$660.87

Value

$913.85

PnL

+$252.98

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

efntrickCTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$763.72

Value

$596.26

PnL

-$167.46

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$277.5

Value

$228.6

PnL

-$34.1

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$112.79

Value

$111.57

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

TRCMARB<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$60.75

Value

$60.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

3878-3105 (6983)

Both legs:

Daniil Ostapenkov$2550¢+$6.75

Gavin Young$35.7544.7¢-$6.55

VeryLucky888<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$58

Value

$60

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

0xheavy888<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

RN1CTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$13.9

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

HRTrading<$100

Gavin Young

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

Research grade

NeutralGavin Young at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Gavin Young

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gavin Young wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.