Ningbo: Xiaoyin Yang vs Timofei Derepasko

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Timofei Derepasko (43%) · Timofei Derepasko at 92¢ · $651 held · ends Nov 1

Xiaoyin Yang9¢Timofei Derepasko91¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Timofei Derepasko

Consensus Traders

Timofei Derepasko 43%

Total Value

$651.19

Combined PnL

-$3.55

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 91.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTimofei Derepasko at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timofei Derepasko

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Xiaoyin Yang9%

Timofei Derepasko92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timofei Derepasko3 traders

Total Value$565.24

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$6.36

Xiaoyin Yang4 traders

Total Value$85.95

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$2.8

Timofei Derepasko — 43%Xiaoyin Yang — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Basquetipster	Timofei Derepaskoavg 83¢	$400	$397.59	-$2.41	70% 1548-673 (2221)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 84¢	$85.86	$84.33	-$1.53	59% 13833-9606 (23439)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Timofei Derepaskoavg 84.9¢	$85.74	$83.32	-$2.42	58% 16108-11762 (27870)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Xiaoyin Yangavg 17¢	$74.04	$76.22	+$2.18	59% 3050-2105 (5155)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Xiaoyin Yangavg 15¢	$4.35	$5.07	+$0.72	60% 3519-2392 (5911)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Xiaoyin Yangavg 19¢	$4.49	$4.13	-$0.35	65% 12545-6667 (19212)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Xiaoyin Yangavg 9¢	$0.27	$0.52	+$0.25	48% 3455-3715 (7170)

Basquetipster

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$400

Value

$397.59

PnL

-$2.41

Record

70%

1548-673 (2221)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$85.86

Value

$84.33

PnL

-$1.53

Record

59%

13833-9606 (23439)

BillBenter2026<$100

Timofei Derepasko

Invested

$85.74

Value

$83.32

PnL

-$2.42

Record

58%

16108-11762 (27870)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Xiaoyin Yang

Invested

$74.04

Value

$76.22

PnL

+$2.18

Record

59%

3050-2105 (5155)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Xiaoyin Yang

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.72

Record

60%

3519-2392 (5911)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Xiaoyin Yang

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.35

Record

65%

12545-6667 (19212)

efntrickCTR<$100

Xiaoyin Yang

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3455-3715 (7170)

Research grade

NeutralTimofei Derepasko at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Timofei Derepasko

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timofei Derepasko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.