Sioux Falls: Benjamin Willwerth vs Duncan Chan

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Benjamin Willwerth (67%) · Benjamin Willwerth at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1

Benjamin Willwerth>99¢Duncan Chan<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Benjamin Willwerth

Consensus Traders

Benjamin Willwerth 67%

Total Value

$24.2K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 100¢

+79% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Willwerth at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Willwerth

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Benjamin Willwerth100%

Duncan Chan0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Benjamin Willwerth8 traders

Total Value$21.3K

Total Shares23,341

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Duncan Chan4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,254

Combined PnL+$609.43

Benjamin Willwerth — 67%Duncan Chan — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Benjamin Willwerthavg 55.2¢	$7.6K	$10.7K	+$3.1K	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
EF efntrick	Benjamin Willwerthavg 56.3¢	$5.9K	$5.4K	-$464.48	48% 3516-3772 (7288)
HO HomeRunHazard	Benjamin Willwerthavg 54.9¢	$3.0K	$3.9K	+$844.98	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
01 01258787xy48487484545122CTR	Duncan Chanavg 43.4¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$569	65% 235-129 (364)
TH thestingsnake	Benjamin Willwerthavg 66.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$216.54	60% 3676-2486 (6162)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Duncan Chanavg 43.8¢	$149.97	$188.19	+$38.22	57% 5308-3962 (9270)
GH ghostorder<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 59¢	$53.4	$40.73	-$12.67	68% 4026-1937 (5963)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 36¢	$27.64	$34.55	+$0.38	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 45.6¢	$16.48	$16.25	-$0.23	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
LO looppau<$100	Benjamin Willwerthavg 99.9¢	$7.87	$7.84	-$0.03	99% 8120-38 (8158)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Duncan Chanavg 37.1¢	$4.55	$6.74	+$2.19	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
RN1CTR<$100	Duncan Chanavg 54¢	$1.17	$1.2	+$0.02	55% 47028-39201 (86229)

UpTheBlues

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$7,630.08

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

efntrick

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$5,909.02

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$464.48

Record

48%

3516-3772 (7288)

HomeRunHazard

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$3,036.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$844.98

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

01258787xy48487484545122CTR

Duncan Chan

Invested

$2,124.45

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$569

Record

65%

235-129 (364)

thestingsnake

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$1,133.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$216.54

Record

60%

3676-2486 (6162)

berlinskiesCTR

Duncan Chan

Invested

$149.97

Value

$188.19

PnL

+$38.22

Record

57%

5308-3962 (9270)

ghostorder<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$53.4

Value

$40.73

PnL

-$12.67

Record

68%

4026-1937 (5963)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$27.64

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$16.48

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$0.23

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

looppau<$100

Benjamin Willwerth

Invested

$7.87

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$0.03

Record

99%

8120-38 (8158)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Duncan Chan

Invested

$4.55

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$2.19

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

RN1CTR<$100

Duncan Chan

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Research grade

NeutralBenjamin Willwerth at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Benjamin Willwerth

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benjamin Willwerth wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.