Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mariano Navone, while the market favors Valentin Vacherot (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Set Handicap: Valentin Vacherot (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mariano Navone (40%) · Mariano Navone at 50¢ · $621 held · ends Nov 3

Valentin Vacherot51¢Mariano Navone49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mariano Navone

Consensus Traders

Mariano Navone 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$621.28

Combined PnL

-$104.01

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 49.5¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMariano Navone at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mariano Navone

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Valentin Vacherot 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valentin Vacherot51%

Mariano Navone50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mariano Navone2 traders

Total Value$210.51

Total Shares421

Combined PnL-$49.54

Valentin Vacherot3 traders

Total Value$172.41

Total Shares345

Combined PnL-$54.46

Mariano Navone — 40%Valentin Vacherot — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 34.2¢	$194.39	$238.36	+$193.97	50% 3909-3962 (7871)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 22.4¢	$57.39	$141.22	+$170.63
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 34.2¢	$73.81	$97.14	+$23.33
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	Mariano Navoneavg 62¢	$246.02	$198.51	-$47.51	49% 321-340 (661)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793	Valentin Vacherotavg 70¢	$204.4	$146	-$58.4	60% 132-89 (221)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 40¢	$12.7	$15.88	+$3.18	49% 17262-17622 (34884)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 59¢	$21.98	$12	-$2.03	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 45¢	$9.78	$10.54	+$0.76	46% 91-105 (196)

mishipolisARB<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$194.39

Value

$238.36

PnL

+$193.97

Record

50%

3909-3962 (7871)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$57.3922.4¢+$170.63

Mariano Navone$73.8134.2¢+$23.33

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$246.02

Value

$198.51

PnL

-$47.51

Record

49%

321-340 (661)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$204.4

Value

$146

PnL

-$58.4

Record

60%

132-89 (221)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$12.7

Value

$15.88

PnL

+$3.18

Record

49%

17262-17622 (34884)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$21.98

Value

$12

PnL

-$2.03

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$9.78

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.76

Record

46%

91-105 (196)

Research grade

NeutralMariano Navone at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mariano Navone

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Valentin Vacherot 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mariano Navone wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.