Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Vacherot (69%) · Valentin Vacherot at 83¢ · $72K held · ends Nov 3

Valentin Vacherot83¢Mariano Navone17¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valentin Vacherot

Consensus Traders

Valentin Vacherot 69%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.6K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 82.5¢

+13% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

11 of 16 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valentin Vacherot83%

Mariano Navone18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valentin Vacherot11 traders

Total Value$59.1K

Total Shares70,616

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Mariano Navone5 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares16,870

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Valentin Vacherot — 69%Mariano Navone — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Valentin Vacherotavg 69.3¢	$28.6K	$33.2K	+$4.6K	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
HO HomeRunHazard	Valentin Vacherotavg 75.2¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$255.7	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
MY myxi	Valentin Vacherotavg 85¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$45	67% 291-142 (433)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 76.3¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$258.26	48% 3562-3815 (7377)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 76.3¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$186.78
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 25.3¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$445.04
RN1CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 27¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$916.81	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
OM omnibus-076daa	Valentin Vacherotavg 68.3¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$55.51	49% 17262-17622 (34884)
MI MilesY	Valentin Vacherotavg 81¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$45.95	57% 572-424 (996)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 24¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$233.33	72% 900-354 (1254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 75.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$4.21	53% 13155-11641 (24796)
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 31.3¢	$663.8	$795.17	+$131.36
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 75.6¢	$782.21	$646.64	-$135.58
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 73.3¢	$4.4K	$1.1K	-$3.78	52% 541-494 (1035)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 73.3¢	$736.73	$829.02	+$164.45
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 28.8¢	$526.56	$319.85	-$168.23
TH thestingsnake	Valentin Vacherotavg 69.7¢	$941.19	$844.49	-$96.7	60% 3792-2562 (6354)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Mariano Navoneavg 31.8¢	$635	$730	+$95	51% 1101-1057 (2158)
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 73.9¢	$596.6	$572.27	-$24.33	63% 1667-991 (2658)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 73.9¢	$456.82	$410.8	-$46.02
└ Mariano Navone leg	Mariano Navoneavg 29¢	$139.78	$161.47	+$21.69
VeryLucky888	Valentin Vacherotavg 63¢	$413.77	$152.84	+$5.36	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
TRCM	Valentin Vacherotavg 74.2¢	$122.45	$131.14	+$8.69	56% 3870-3084 (6954)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 70¢	$80.07	$79.5	-$0.57	59% 2420-1676 (4096)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 69.3¢	$83.31	$71.51	-$11.8	58% 17514-12861 (30375)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 36¢	$35.21	$35.7	+$0.49	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Mariano Navoneavg 25.3¢	$36.9	$33.78	-$3.12	67% 21831-10527 (32358)
tradecraft<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 75.8¢	$29.1	$26.28	-$2.82	52% 5717-5329 (11046)

UpTheBlues

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$28,599.32

Value

$33.2K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

HomeRunHazard

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$10,987.88

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$255.7

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

myxi

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$7,650

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$45

Record

67%

291-142 (433)

efntrickARB<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$3,763.59

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$258.26

Record

48%

3562-3815 (7377)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$2,318.0176.3¢+$186.78

Mariano Navone$1,445.5825.3¢-$445.04

RN1CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$2,263.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$916.81

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

omnibus-076daa

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$3,124.85

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$55.51

Record

49%

17262-17622 (34884)

MilesY

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$2,481.25

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$45.95

Record

57%

572-424 (996)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$233.33

Record

72%

900-354 (1254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$1,446.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$4.21

Record

53%

13155-11641 (24796)

Both legs:

Mariano Navone$663.831.3¢+$131.36

Valentin Vacherot$782.2175.6¢-$135.58

1lovejumpARB<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$4,388.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$3.78

Record

52%

541-494 (1035)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$736.7373.3¢+$164.45

Mariano Navone$526.5628.8¢-$168.23

thestingsnake

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$941.19

Value

$844.49

PnL

-$96.7

Record

60%

3792-2562 (6354)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Mariano Navone

Invested

$635

Value

$730

PnL

+$95

Record

51%

1101-1057 (2158)

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$596.6

Value

$572.27

PnL

-$24.33

Record

63%

1667-991 (2658)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$456.8273.9¢-$46.02

Mariano Navone$139.7829¢+$21.69

VeryLucky888

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$413.77

Value

$152.84

PnL

+$5.36

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

TRCM

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$122.45

Value

$131.14

PnL

+$8.69

Record

56%

3870-3084 (6954)

Saber-greed<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$80.07

Value

$79.5

PnL

-$0.57

Record

59%

2420-1676 (4096)

BillBenter2026<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$83.31

Value

$71.51

PnL

-$11.8

Record

58%

17514-12861 (30375)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$35.21

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$0.49

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Mariano Navone

Invested

$36.9

Value

$33.78

PnL

-$3.12

Record

67%

21831-10527 (32358)

tradecraft<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$29.1

Value

$26.28

PnL

-$2.82

Record

52%

5717-5329 (11046)

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

11 of 16 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valentin Vacherot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.