Sioux Falls: James Kent Trotter vs Trevor Svajda

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold James Kent Trotter (63%) · James Kent Trotter at 78¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 1

James Kent Trotter78¢Trevor Svajda22¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

James Kent Trotter

Consensus Traders

James Kent Trotter 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$-17.7K

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 77.5¢

+94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJames Kent Trotter at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Kent Trotter

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

James Kent Trotter78%

Trevor Svajda23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Kent Trotter5 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares73,451

Combined PnL$-16.6K

Trevor Svajda3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares11,879

Combined PnL$-1.1K

James Kent Trotter — 63%Trevor Svajda — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	James Kent Trotteravg 39.7¢	$29.0K	$12.4K	$-16.6K	48% 89-98 (187)
RN1CTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 59.8¢	$6.4K	$5.6K	-$788.2	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 56.2¢	$4.4K	$3.3K	$-1.1K	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 56.2¢	$3.9K	$1.9K	$-2.0K
└ James Kent Trotter leg	James Kent Trotteravg 28.1¢	$538.65	$1.4K	+$848.92
EF efntrickARB<$100	James Kent Trotteravg 63.5¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$417.7	48% 3481-3745 (7226)
└ James Kent Trotter leg	James Kent Trotteravg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$284.05
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$447.75	-$701.75
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 68.5¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$689.46	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
└ James Kent Trotter leg	James Kent Trotteravg 47.7¢	$457.38	$742.59	+$285.21
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 68.5¢	$1.5K	$477.18	-$974.66
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 64.4¢	$748.58	$455.59	-$269.59	60% 3564-2421 (5985)
GH ghostorder	James Kent Trotteravg 72¢	$324	$263.25	-$60.75	67% 3978-1918 (5896)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 65.6¢	$31.6	$15.79	-$15.81	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
TRCM<$100	James Kent Trotteravg 40¢	$4	$3.45	-$0.55	57% 3656-2707 (6363)
SC SchruteBucks	James Kent Trotteravg 65.4¢	$130.75	$2.74	+$19.38	56% 1670-1334 (3004)
tradecraft<$100	James Kent Trotteravg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	52% 5543-5167 (10710)

robustmst

James Kent Trotter

Invested

$29,000

Value

$12.4K

PnL

$-16.6K

Record

48%

89-98 (187)

RN1CTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$6,423.65

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$788.2

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$4,402.66

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

Both legs:

Trevor Svajda$3,864.0156.2¢$-2.0K

James Kent Trotter$538.6528.1¢+$848.92

efntrickARB<$100

James Kent Trotter

Invested

$2,433

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$417.7

Record

48%

3481-3745 (7226)

Both legs:

James Kent Trotter$1,283.563.5¢+$284.05

Trevor Svajda$1,149.557.8¢-$701.75

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$1,909.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$689.46

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

Both legs:

James Kent Trotter$457.3847.7¢+$285.21

Trevor Svajda$1,451.8468.5¢-$974.66

thestingsnakeCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$748.58

Value

$455.59

PnL

-$269.59

Record

60%

3564-2421 (5985)

ghostorder

James Kent Trotter

Invested

$324

Value

$263.25

PnL

-$60.75

Record

67%

3978-1918 (5896)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$31.6

Value

$15.79

PnL

-$15.81

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

TRCM<$100

James Kent Trotter

Invested

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.55

Record

57%

3656-2707 (6363)

SchruteBucks

James Kent Trotter

Invested

$130.75

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$19.38

Record

56%

1670-1334 (3004)

tradecraft<$100

James Kent Trotter

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

5543-5167 (10710)

Research grade

NeutralJames Kent Trotter at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

James Kent Trotter

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Kent Trotter wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.