Guayaquil: Miguel Tobon vs Daniel Salazar Martinez

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Miguel Tobon (50%) · Miguel Tobon at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Miguel Tobon>99¢Daniel Salazar Martinez<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miguel Tobon

Consensus Traders

Miguel Tobon 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$21.61

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 99.2¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiguel Tobon at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miguel Tobon

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Miguel Tobon99%

Daniel Salazar Martinez1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miguel Tobon4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,087

Combined PnL+$28.88

Daniel Salazar Martinez4 traders

Total Value$14.64

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$7.27

Miguel Tobon — 50%Daniel Salazar Martinez — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Miguel Tobonavg 96.4¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$20.97	60% 40137-26767 (66904)
poshposh	Miguel Tobonavg 97.8¢	$293.4	$297.9	+$4.5	61% 8673-5619 (14292)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 14¢	$134.53	$145.12	+$10.59	53% 13185-11668 (24853)
└ Daniel Salazar Martinez leg	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 14¢	$103.81	$114.94	+$11.12
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 86¢	$30.72	$30.18	-$0.54
EF efntrick<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 84.7¢	$22.27	$22.08	-$0.19	48% 3571-3819 (7390)
RN1<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 85¢	$11.89	$15.49	+$3.6	54% 52350-44240 (96590)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 13.1¢	$16.63	$8.23	-$8.41	54% 15657-13112 (28769)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 11¢	$2.2	$3.1	+$0.9	60% 3821-2595 (6416)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 14¢	$1.87	$2.07	+$0.2	62% 13424-8274 (21698)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Daniel Salazar Martinezavg 15¢	$1.2	$1.24	+$0.04	58% 17987-13232 (31219)

UpTheBlues

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$3,652.03

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$20.97

Record

60%

40137-26767 (66904)

poshposh

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$293.4

Value

$297.9

PnL

+$4.5

Record

61%

8673-5619 (14292)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Invested

$134.53

Value

$145.12

PnL

+$10.59

Record

53%

13185-11668 (24853)

Both legs:

Daniel Salazar Martinez$103.8114¢+$11.12

Miguel Tobon$30.7286¢-$0.54

efntrick<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$22.27

Value

$22.08

PnL

-$0.19

Record

48%

3571-3819 (7390)

RN1<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$11.89

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$3.6

Record

54%

52350-44240 (96590)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Invested

$16.63

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$8.41

Record

54%

15657-13112 (28769)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

60%

3821-2595 (6416)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

13424-8274 (21698)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

17987-13232 (31219)

Research grade

NeutralMiguel Tobon at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Miguel Tobon

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miguel Tobon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.