Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rigele Te, while the market favors Mert Alkaya (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ningbo: Rigele Te vs Mert Alkaya

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rigele Te (78%) · Rigele Te at 1.3¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Rigele Te1¢Mert Alkaya99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rigele Te

Consensus Traders

Rigele Te 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$123.31

Smart Money Entry

29.4¢ → 1.3¢

-96% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRigele Te at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rigele Te

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Mert Alkaya 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rigele Te1%

Mert Alkaya99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mert Alkaya2 traders

Total Value$745.08

Total Shares755

Combined PnL+$7.65

Rigele Te7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,329

Combined PnL+$115.66

Mert Alkaya — 22%Rigele Te — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 60.3¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$107.33	48% 3550-3797 (7347)
└ Mert Alkaya leg	Mert Alkayaavg 60.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$175.94
└ Rigele Te leg	Rigele Teavg 38.6¢	$357.33	$425.93	+$68.6
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mert Alkayaavg 95.7¢	$733.93	$742.38	+$8.45	53% 12836-11423 (24259)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Rigele Teavg 38.3¢	$561	$673.78	+$112.78	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Rigele Teavg 29.9¢	$1.6K	$618.63	-$299.28	60% 3737-2530 (6267)
TRCMCTR	Rigele Teavg 4¢	$23.6	$271.4	+$247.8	56% 3845-3077 (6922)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Rigele Teavg 32.9¢	$118.63	$165.71	+$47.08	50% 3519-3537 (7056)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 89.3¢	$174.91	$125.18	-$49.73	58% 17313-12718 (30031)
└ Rigele Te leg	Rigele Teavg 53.6¢	$76.63	$65.78	-$10.85
└ Mert Alkaya leg	Mert Alkayaavg 89.3¢	$98.28	$59.4	-$38.88
HRTradingCTR<$100	Rigele Teavg 38¢	$3.61	$4.37	+$0.76	55% 2063-1679 (3742)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Rigele Teavg 43.5¢	$66.2	$2.87	+$6.49	56% 1753-1371 (3124)
tradecraft<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 70¢	$3.5	$2.7	-$0.8	52% 5636-5262 (10898)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Rigele Teavg 2.3¢	$0.4	$0.42	+$0.02	50% 12114-12271 (24385)

efntrickARB<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$2,032.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$107.33

Record

48%

3550-3797 (7347)

Both legs:

Mert Alkaya$1,675.1260.3¢-$175.94

Rigele Te$357.3338.6¢+$68.6

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$733.93

Value

$742.38

PnL

+$8.45

Record

53%

12836-11423 (24259)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Rigele Te

Invested

$561

Value

$673.78

PnL

+$112.78

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

thestingsnakeCTR

Rigele Te

Invested

$1,603.11

Value

$618.63

PnL

-$299.28

Record

60%

3737-2530 (6267)

TRCMCTR

Rigele Te

Invested

$23.6

Value

$271.4

PnL

+$247.8

Record

56%

3845-3077 (6922)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Rigele Te

Invested

$118.63

Value

$165.71

PnL

+$47.08

Record

50%

3519-3537 (7056)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$174.91

Value

$125.18

PnL

-$49.73

Record

58%

17313-12718 (30031)

Both legs:

Rigele Te$76.6353.6¢-$10.85

Mert Alkaya$98.2889.3¢-$38.88

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$3.61

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.76

Record

55%

2063-1679 (3742)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$66.2

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$6.49

Record

56%

1753-1371 (3124)

tradecraft<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

52%

5636-5262 (10898)

sentrioCTR<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

12114-12271 (24385)

Research grade

AvoidRigele Te at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Rigele Te

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Mert Alkaya 99%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rigele Te wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.