Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Khumoyun Sultanov, while the market favors Naoya Honda (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ningbo: Khumoyun Sultanov vs Naoya Honda
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Khumoyun Sultanov (50%) · Khumoyun Sultanov at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Khumoyun Sultanov
4
Khumoyun Sultanov 50%
2 arb excluded
$5.5K
$48.32
66.7¢ → 49.5¢
-26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralKhumoyun Sultanov at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Naoya Honda 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF efntrickARB<$100 | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 78.1¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | -$303.29 | 48% 3551-3797 (7348) |
| └ Khumoyun Sultanov leg | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 78.1¢ | $3.0K | $2.3K | -$669.89 | |
| └ Naoya Honda leg | Naoya Hondaavg 28.9¢ | $998.77 | $1.4K | +$366.59 | |
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100 | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 66.1¢ | $3.6K | $1.4K | +$761.39 | 60% 3737-2531 (6268) |
| └ Naoya Honda leg | Naoya Hondaavg 25.9¢ | $411.86 | $699.65 | +$460.36 | |
| └ Khumoyun Sultanov leg | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 66.1¢ | $812.32 | $688.4 | +$301.02 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 64.9¢ | $340.86 | $378.37 | +$37.51 | 63% 25635-15377 (41012) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Khumoyun Sultanovavg 79.3¢ | $63.91 | $67.24 | +$3.33 | 44% 2201-2835 (5036) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 12.1¢ | $7.37 | $14.58 | +$7.21 | 55% 2064-1680 (3744) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 23.3¢ | $8.9 | $9.15 | +$0.26 | 62% 13301-8165 (21466) |
Invested
$3,971.98
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$303.29
Record
48%
3551-3797 (7348)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,570.34
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$761.39
Record
60%
3737-2531 (6268)
Both legs:
Invested
$340.86
Value
$378.37
PnL
+$37.51
Record
63%
25635-15377 (41012)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$63.91
Value
$67.24
PnL
+$3.33
Record
44%
2201-2835 (5036)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.37
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$7.21
Record
55%
2064-1680 (3744)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$9.15
PnL
+$0.26
Record
62%
13301-8165 (21466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.