Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jan-Lennard Struff, while the market favors Tallon Griekspoor (56%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

European Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Tallon Griekspoor

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jan-Lennard Struff (53%) · Jan-Lennard Struff at 44¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 1

Jan-Lennard Struff44¢Tallon Griekspoor56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jan-Lennard Struff

Consensus Traders

Jan-Lennard Struff 53%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 43.5¢

-25% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJan-Lennard Struff at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jan-Lennard Struff

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Tallon Griekspoor 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jan-Lennard Struff44%

Tallon Griekspoor56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jan-Lennard Struff9 traders

Total Value$36.3K

Total Shares49,834

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Tallon Griekspoor8 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares62,813

Combined PnL$-9.1K

Jan-Lennard Struff — 53%Tallon Griekspoor — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 63¢	$21.6K	$19.8K	$-1.8K	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 63¢	$11.8K	$13.2K	+$1.4K
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 43.8¢	$9.9K	$6.6K	$-3.2K
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 55.1¢	$11.2K	$13.8K	+$2.5K	55% 12144-10023 (22167)
one8tyfiveCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 70¢	$10.5K	$10.6K	+$75	65% 2038-1099 (3137)
KK Kkunn	Tallon Griekspooravg 34¢	$9.6K	$8.3K	$-1.3K	43% 196-261 (457)
KK kkookkoo	Tallon Griekspooravg 58¢	$13.4K	$6.8K	$-6.6K	51% 524-511 (1035)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 53.2¢	$4.7K	$5.4K	+$669.01	48% 3466-3730 (7196)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 53.2¢	$2.9K	$3.9K	+$954.68
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 35.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$285.67
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 52.3¢	$4.2K	$4.9K	+$718.87	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 52.3¢	$2.7K	$3.7K	+$947.1
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 34.8¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$228.23
tradecraftCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 45¢	$2.4K	$3.8K	+$1.4K	52% 5516-5123 (10639)
GH ghostorderCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 64¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$178.99	68% 3934-1881 (5815)
RN1CTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 43.6¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$938.42	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Tallon Griekspooravg 32.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$206.67	39% 447-690 (1137)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 63.9¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	-$279.2	60% 3538-2405 (5943)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 63.9¢	$962.31	$1.1K	+$22.32
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 47.8¢	$791.12	$488.46	-$301.52
TRCMCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 62¢	$930	$1.1K	+$127.5	57% 3649-2700 (6349)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Tallon Griekspooravg 42.6¢	$3.4K	$905.4	-$93.43	52% 521-485 (1006)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 59.4¢	$443.14	$525.9	+$206.32
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 42.6¢	$548.53	$379.51	-$299.75
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tallon Griekspooravg 54.5¢	$1.6K	$885	-$750	51% 985-937 (1922)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 42¢	$364	$611	+$247	59% 123-84 (207)
YO yohan75	Tallon Griekspooravg 54¢	$315	$320	+$5	51% 234-221 (455)
VeryLucky888	Tallon Griekspooravg 53.2¢	$2.0K	$226.31	-$125.59	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 46.5¢	$89.38	$130.84	-$1.84	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 66.2¢	$120.41	$128.31	+$7.9	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
0X 0x1111111111	Tallon Griekspooravg 45¢	$155.58	$105.7	-$49.87	64% 1586-910 (2496)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Tallon Griekspooravg 54¢	$147.27	$83.18	-$64.09	49% 305-317 (622)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$21,637.77

Value

$19.8K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$11,763.1563¢+$1.4K

Tallon Griekspoor$9,874.6243.8¢$-3.2K

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$11,232.66

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

55%

12144-10023 (22167)

one8tyfiveCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$10,500

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$75

Record

65%

2038-1099 (3137)

Kkunn

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$9,605.01

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

43%

196-261 (457)

kkookkoo

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$13,436.59

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

51%

524-511 (1035)

efntrickARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$4,716.04

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$669.01

Record

48%

3466-3730 (7196)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$2,939.853.2¢+$954.68

Tallon Griekspoor$1,776.2435.2¢-$285.67

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$4,207.16

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$718.87

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$2,712.5152.3¢+$947.1

Tallon Griekspoor$1,494.6534.8¢-$228.23

tradecraftCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$2,398.86

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

5516-5123 (10639)

ghostorderCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$3,352.89

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$178.99

Record

68%

3934-1881 (5815)

RN1CTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$1,722.96

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$938.42

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$206.67

Record

39%

447-690 (1137)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$2,965.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$279.2

Record

60%

3538-2405 (5943)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$962.3163.9¢+$22.32

Tallon Griekspoor$791.1247.8¢-$301.52

TRCMCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$930

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$127.5

Record

57%

3649-2700 (6349)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$3,369.2

Value

$905.4

PnL

-$93.43

Record

52%

521-485 (1006)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$443.1459.4¢+$206.32

Tallon Griekspoor$548.5342.6¢-$299.75

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$1,635

Value

$885

PnL

-$750

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$364

Value

$611

PnL

+$247

Record

59%

123-84 (207)

yohan75

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$315

Value

$320

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

234-221 (455)

VeryLucky888

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$1,971.88

Value

$226.31

PnL

-$125.59

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$89.38

Value

$130.84

PnL

-$1.84

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

BillBenter2026CTR

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$120.41

Value

$128.31

PnL

+$7.9

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

0x1111111111

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$155.58

Value

$105.7

PnL

-$49.87

Record

64%

1586-910 (2496)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$147.27

Value

$83.18

PnL

-$64.09

Record

49%

305-317 (622)

Research grade

NeutralJan-Lennard Struff at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jan-Lennard Struff

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Tallon Griekspoor 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jan-Lennard Struff wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.