Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dominic Stephan Stricker, while the market favors Casper Ruud (59%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Swiss Indoors Basel: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Casper Ruud

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Dominic Stephan Stricker (58%) · Dominic Stephan Stricker at 42¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 3

Dominic Stephan Stricker42¢Casper Ruud58¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Consensus Traders

Dominic Stephan Stricker 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

-$109.33

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 41.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDominic Stephan Stricker at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dominic Stephan Stricker

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Casper Ruud 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dominic Stephan Stricker42%

Casper Ruud59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dominic Stephan Stricker7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares25,392

Combined PnL-$103.56

Casper Ruud5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,862

Combined PnL-$5.77

Dominic Stephan Stricker — 58%Casper Ruud — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dominic Stephan Stricker. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Casper Ruud) and the top 1000 (6 on Dominic Stephan Stricker) disagree here.

whaleDominic Stephan Stricker 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpCasper Ruud 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCasper Ruud 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCasper Ruud 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Dominic Stephan Stricker 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 30.2¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$176.97	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 61.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$45.29	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 61.2¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$139.22
└ Dominic Stephan Stricker leg	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 39.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$93.93
MI MilesYCTR	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 36.3¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$258.12	58% 593-437 (1030)
PL pltrkr111	Casper Ruudavg 71¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$14.08	55% 700-573 (1273)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 60.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$53.35	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
└ Dominic Stephan Stricker leg	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 38.1¢	$736.67	$842.05	+$105.38
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 60.3¢	$817.6	$765.57	-$52.02
OU outloudm	Casper Ruudavg 65¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$7.69	59% 61-42 (103)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 60¢	$887.87	$927.56	+$39.69	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 60¢	$716	$710.03	-$5.97
└ Dominic Stephan Stricker leg	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 32¢	$171.87	$217.53	+$45.65
LI LilybaeumCTR	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 30.2¢	$832.01	$813.72	-$18.29	62% 13428-8277 (21705)
RN1ARB<$100	Casper Ruudavg 60¢	$374.43	$422.43	+$48	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ Casper Ruud leg	Casper Ruudavg 60¢	$240	$238	-$2
└ Dominic Stephan Stricker leg	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 29.5¢	$134.43	$184.43	+$50
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 42¢	$358.28	$353.62	-$4.66	52% 548-498 (1046)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 29.8¢	$201.05	$209.25	+$8.2	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
AS astapzippo	Casper Ruudavg 68¢	$189.72	$192.51	+$2.79	56% 2072-1609 (3681)
0xheavy888	Casper Ruudavg 71¢	$119.28	$115.92	-$3.36	56% 6708-5376 (12084)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 32¢	$75.08	$69.22	-$5.87	59% 2434-1681 (4115)
VeryLucky888<$100	Casper Ruudavg 70.9¢	$40	$41.19	+$1.19	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Dominic Stephan Strickeravg 39¢	$15.6	$13.8	-$1.8	60% 3825-2595 (6420)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$4,266.39

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$176.97

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$3,711.46

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$45.29

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$2,275.7161.2¢-$139.22

Dominic Stephan Stricker$1,435.7539.9¢+$93.93

MilesYCTR

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$2,444.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$258.12

Record

58%

593-437 (1030)

pltrkr111

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$14.08

Record

55%

700-573 (1273)

efntrickARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,554.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$53.35

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

Both legs:

Dominic Stephan Stricker$736.6738.1¢+$105.38

Casper Ruud$817.660.3¢-$52.02

outloudm

Casper Ruud

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.69

Record

59%

61-42 (103)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$887.87

Value

$927.56

PnL

+$39.69

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$71660¢-$5.97

Dominic Stephan Stricker$171.8732¢+$45.65

LilybaeumCTR

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$832.01

Value

$813.72

PnL

-$18.29

Record

62%

13428-8277 (21705)

RN1ARB<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$374.43

Value

$422.43

PnL

+$48

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

Casper Ruud$24060¢-$2

Dominic Stephan Stricker$134.4329.5¢+$50

1lovejumpCTR

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$358.28

Value

$353.62

PnL

-$4.66

Record

52%

548-498 (1046)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$201.05

Value

$209.25

PnL

+$8.2

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

astapzippo

Casper Ruud

Invested

$189.72

Value

$192.51

PnL

+$2.79

Record

56%

2072-1609 (3681)

0xheavy888

Casper Ruud

Invested

$119.28

Value

$115.92

PnL

-$3.36

Record

56%

6708-5376 (12084)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$75.08

Value

$69.22

PnL

-$5.87

Record

59%

2434-1681 (4115)

VeryLucky888<$100

Casper Ruud

Invested

$40

Value

$41.19

PnL

+$1.19

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Dominic Stephan Stricker

Invested

$15.6

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$1.8

Record

60%

3825-2595 (6420)

Research grade

NeutralDominic Stephan Stricker at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dominic Stephan Stricker

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Casper Ruud 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Dominic Stephan Stricker. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Casper Ruud) and the top 1000 (6 on Dominic Stephan Stricker) disagree here.

whaleDominic Stephan Stricker 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpCasper Ruud 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCasper Ruud 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCasper Ruud 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Dominic Stephan Stricker 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dominic Stephan Stricker wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.