Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Sonego, while the market favors Jacob Fearnley (71%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (44%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 30¢ · $94K held · ends Nov 1

Lorenzo Sonego30¢Jacob Fearnley70¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 29.5¢

-32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLorenzo Sonego at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Jacob Fearnley 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego30%

Jacob Fearnley71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacob Fearnley9 traders

Total Value$30.3K

Total Shares41,662

Combined PnL+$992.16

Lorenzo Sonego7 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares61,633

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Jacob Fearnley — 56%Lorenzo Sonego — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJacob Fearnley 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrJacob Fearnley 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJacob Fearnley 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jacob Fearnley 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 34.1¢	$33.9K	$37.3K	+$3.4K	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 34.1¢	$19.0K	$23.7K	+$4.7K
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 63¢	$14.9K	$13.6K	$-1.3K
RN1	Jacob Fearnleyavg 56.5¢	$13.8K	$13.9K	+$127.12	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
RO robustmstCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 40.7¢	$13.0K	$12.1K	-$876.62	48% 85-92 (177)
KK kkookkooCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 47¢	$13.0K	$6.9K	$-6.1K	51% 522-509 (1031)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 72.3¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$148.28	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 29.9¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$558.09
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 72.3¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	-$409.82
EF efntrick	Jacob Fearnleyavg 73¢	$5.6K	$5.2K	-$365.19	48% 3458-3722 (7180)
one8tyfive	Jacob Fearnleyavg 81¢	$5.2K	$4.8K	-$383.76	65% 2033-1099 (3132)
GH ghostorder	Jacob Fearnleyavg 53¢	$1.9K	$3.1K	+$1.2K	68% 3929-1879 (5808)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jacob Fearnleyavg 57.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$88.41	53% 12216-10949 (23165)
VeryLucky888	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$380.47	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55¢	$845	$1.0K	+$135	51% 979-932 (1911)
└ Jacob Fearnley leg	Jacob Fearnleyavg 55¢	$550	$545	-$5
└ Lorenzo Sonego leg	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 29.5¢	$295	$455	+$140
OL oliverea	Jacob Fearnleyavg 57¢	$245.56	$323.1	-$12.92	58% 264-190 (454)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 40.9¢	$291.41	$267.26	-$24.15	66% 2852-1491 (4343)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 19¢	$190	$250	+$60	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 44.2¢	$144.96	$93	-$26.85	60% 3526-2397 (5923)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 80.1¢	$64.19	$46.68	-$17.51	58% 16124-11772 (27896)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 36.9¢	$29.68	$24.75	-$4.93	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 43¢	$10.05	$10.25	+$0.21	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
tradecraft<$100	Jacob Fearnleyavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.13	-$0.08	52% 5507-5116 (10623)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$33,922.62

Value

$37.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$19,016.5734.1¢+$4.7K

Jacob Fearnley$14,906.0563¢$-1.3K

RN1

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$13,818.91

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$127.12

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

robustmstCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$13,000

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$876.62

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

kkookkooCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$13,000

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

51%

522-509 (1031)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$5,894.47

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$148.28

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Sonego$2,53829.9¢+$558.09

Jacob Fearnley$3,356.4672.3¢-$409.82

efntrick

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$5,569.66

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$365.19

Record

48%

3458-3722 (7180)

one8tyfive

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$5,180.76

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$383.76

Record

65%

2033-1099 (3132)

ghostorder

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$1,918.13

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

68%

3929-1879 (5808)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$1,382.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$88.41

Record

53%

12216-10949 (23165)

VeryLucky888

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$1,082.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$380.47

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$845

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$135

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

Both legs:

Jacob Fearnley$55055¢-$5

Lorenzo Sonego$29529.5¢+$140

oliverea

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$245.56

Value

$323.1

PnL

-$12.92

Record

58%

264-190 (454)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$291.41

Value

$267.26

PnL

-$24.15

Record

66%

2852-1491 (4343)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$190

Value

$250

PnL

+$60

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

thestingsnakeCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$144.96

Value

$93

PnL

-$26.85

Record

60%

3526-2397 (5923)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$64.19

Value

$46.68

PnL

-$17.51

Record

58%

16124-11772 (27896)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$29.68

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$4.93

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$10.05

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

tradecraft<$100

Jacob Fearnley

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

5507-5116 (10623)

Research grade

AvoidLorenzo Sonego at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Jacob Fearnley 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJacob Fearnley 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrJacob Fearnley 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJacob Fearnley 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jacob Fearnley 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.