Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jan Kumstat, while the market favors Sho Shimabukuro (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Seoul: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jan Kumstat

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jan Kumstat (67%) · Jan Kumstat at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Sho Shimabukuro>99¢Jan Kumstat<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jan Kumstat

Consensus Traders

Jan Kumstat 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$57.86

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJan Kumstat at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Sho Shimabukuro 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sho Shimabukuro100%

Jan Kumstat0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jan Kumstat4 traders

Total Value$898.22

Total Shares2,994

Combined PnL-$52.31

Sho Shimabukuro2 traders

Total Value$479.64

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$5.55

Jan Kumstat — 67%Sho Shimabukuro — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJan Kumstat 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSho Shimabukuro 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJan Kumstat 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedJan Kumstat 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jan Kumstat 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$126.58	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
└ Sho Shimabukuro leg	Sho Shimabukuroavg 63.5¢	$709.08	$781.2	+$72.12
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 27.4¢	$564.6	$619.06	+$54.46
VeryLucky888CTR	Jan Kumstatavg 42.6¢	$720.97	$740.58	+$19.61	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 73¢	$1.2K	$667.04	-$43.96	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
└ Sho Shimabukuro leg	Sho Shimabukuroavg 73¢	$503.7	$489.9	-$13.8
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 31¢	$207.29	$177.14	-$30.16
LS LSS1	Sho Shimabukuroavg 73¢	$407.74	$396.57	-$11.17	72% 1522-596 (2118)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 74.2¢	$165.36	$130.7	-$20.65	53% 559-502 (1061)
└ Sho Shimabukuro leg	Sho Shimabukuroavg 74.2¢	$96.03	$91.92	-$4.11
└ Jan Kumstat leg	Jan Kumstatavg 38.2¢	$49.36	$38.78	-$16.55
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Jan Kumstatavg 43¢	$120.4	$84	-$36.4	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sho Shimabukuroavg 66.2¢	$77.45	$83.07	+$5.62	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
RN1CTR<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 43¢	$61.73	$43.07	-$18.66	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Jan Kumstatavg 44.3¢	$54.45	$30.58	-$16.86	60% 3868-2622 (6490)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$1,273.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$126.58

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

Both legs:

Sho Shimabukuro$709.0863.5¢+$72.12

Jan Kumstat$564.627.4¢+$54.46

VeryLucky888CTR

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$720.97

Value

$740.58

PnL

+$19.61

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

efntrickARB<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$1,172.15

Value

$667.04

PnL

-$43.96

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

Both legs:

Sho Shimabukuro$503.773¢-$13.8

Jan Kumstat$207.2931¢-$30.16

LSS1

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$407.74

Value

$396.57

PnL

-$11.17

Record

72%

1522-596 (2118)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$165.36

Value

$130.7

PnL

-$20.65

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

Both legs:

Sho Shimabukuro$96.0374.2¢-$4.11

Jan Kumstat$49.3638.2¢-$16.55

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$120.4

Value

$84

PnL

-$36.4

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sho Shimabukuro

Invested

$77.45

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$5.62

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

RN1CTR<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$61.73

Value

$43.07

PnL

-$18.66

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Jan Kumstat

Invested

$54.45

Value

$30.58

PnL

-$16.86

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

Research grade

AvoidJan Kumstat at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Jan Kumstat

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Sho Shimabukuro 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jan Kumstat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJan Kumstat 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSho Shimabukuro 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJan Kumstat 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedJan Kumstat 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Jan Kumstat 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jan Kumstat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.