Seoul: Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Rei Sakamoto (80%) · Rei Sakamoto at 95¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Rei Sakamoto95¢Kasidit Samrej5¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Rei Sakamoto

Consensus Traders

Rei Sakamoto 80%

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$58.79

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 94.8¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateRei Sakamoto at 95%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rei Sakamoto

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rei Sakamoto95%

Kasidit Samrej5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rei Sakamoto12 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares15,875

Combined PnL-$90.31

Kasidit Samrej3 traders

Total Value$186.48

Total Shares1,527

Combined PnL+$31.53

Rei Sakamoto — 80%Kasidit Samrej — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Rei Sakamotoavg 92.5¢	$8.1K	$8.3K	+$197.68	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
HO HomeRunHazard	Rei Sakamotoavg 89.9¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$80.76	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
TH thestingsnake	Rei Sakamotoavg 89.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25.21	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
RN1	Rei Sakamotoavg 95¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$369.98	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
DA darkumbreon88	Rei Sakamotoavg 87.4¢	$530.88	$537.72	+$6.84	65% 1611-864 (2475)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Rei Sakamotoavg 96¢	$480	$477.5	-$2.5	51% 1087-1048 (2135)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Rei Sakamotoavg 88¢	$307.51	$321.15	+$13.63	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
EF efntrick	Rei Sakamotoavg 96¢	$290.11	$253.59	-$36.53	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
1L 1lovejump	Rei Sakamotoavg 92.1¢	$195.69	$145.12	+$0.29	52% 529-488 (1017)
0xheavy888	Rei Sakamotoavg 87.3¢	$134.37	$128.58	-$5.79	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 12¢	$69.7	$95.84	+$26.14	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 9¢	$84.15	$88.83	+$4.67	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 92.1¢	$40.58	$42.02	+$1.44	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 88¢	$26.69	$25.33	-$1.36	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 10¢	$1.1	$1.82	+$0.72	50% 10665-10792 (21457)

UpTheBlues

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$8,148.95

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$197.68

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

HomeRunHazard

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$2,509.87

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$80.76

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

thestingsnake

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$1,267.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.21

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

RN1

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$1,553.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$369.98

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

darkumbreon88

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$530.88

Value

$537.72

PnL

+$6.84

Record

65%

1611-864 (2475)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$480

Value

$477.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1087-1048 (2135)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$307.51

Value

$321.15

PnL

+$13.63

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

efntrick

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$290.11

Value

$253.59

PnL

-$36.53

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

1lovejump

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$195.69

Value

$145.12

PnL

+$0.29

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

0xheavy888

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$134.37

Value

$128.58

PnL

-$5.79

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$69.7

Value

$95.84

PnL

+$26.14

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$84.15

Value

$88.83

PnL

+$4.67

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

BillBenter2026<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$40.58

Value

$42.02

PnL

+$1.44

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$26.69

Value

$25.33

PnL

-$1.36

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

Research grade

Research candidateRei Sakamoto at 95%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Rei Sakamoto

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rei Sakamoto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.