Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Quentin Halys
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Holger Rune (67%) · Holger Rune at 50¢ · $298 held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Holger Rune
3
Holger Rune 67%
$298.37
-$1.51
51¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHolger Rune at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS astapzippo | Holger Runeavg 51¢ | $152.99 | $149.99 | -$1.5 | 58% 1950-1432 (3382) |
 VeryLucky888 | Holger Runeavg 50.9¢ | $118.52 | $116.39 | -$0.97 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Quentin Halysavg 47¢ | $30.08 | $32 | +$0.96 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.