Florence: Michele Ribecai vs Filippo Romano

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Filippo Romano (70%) · Filippo Romano at 81¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1

Michele Ribecai20¢Filippo Romano80¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filippo Romano

Consensus Traders

Filippo Romano 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 80.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilippo Romano at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filippo Romano

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Michele Ribecai20%

Filippo Romano81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michele Ribecai3 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares11,741

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Filippo Romano7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,297

Combined PnL-$935.56

Michele Ribecai — 30%Filippo Romano — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 23.6¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
EF efntrick	Filippo Romanoavg 75.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$39.71	48% 3455-3715 (7170)
HO HomeRunHazard	Filippo Romanoavg 91¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$178.78	55% 11947-9845 (21792)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Filippo Romanoavg 77.5¢	$1.3K	$650.53	-$676.14	53% 12198-10936 (23134)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Michele Ribecaiavg 24.5¢	$112.99	$272.46	+$163.42	60% 3519-2392 (5911)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Filippo Romanoavg 60.3¢	$367.07	$196.18	+$25.55	52% 518-484 (1002)
└ Filippo Romano leg	Filippo Romanoavg 60.3¢	$159.01	$100.2	-$11.18
└ Michele Ribecai leg	Michele Ribecaiavg 29.6¢	$45.81	$95.98	+$36.72
KE Kev69	Filippo Romanoavg 80¢	$207.54	$98.58	-$108.96	56% 537-414 (951)
RN1<$100	Filippo Romanoavg 40¢	$87.55	$83.17	-$4.38	55% 43396-35692 (79088)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Filippo Romanoavg 40¢	$40.8	$38.76	+$0.51	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
tradecraft<$100	Filippo Romanoavg 60.8¢	$20.06	$12.54	-$7.52	52% 5500-5106 (10606)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Michele Ribecaiavg 30.2¢	$4.81	$9.87	+$5.06	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

UpTheBluesCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$4,421.76

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

efntrick

Filippo Romano

Invested

$1,885.82

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$39.71

Record

48%

3455-3715 (7170)

HomeRunHazard

Filippo Romano

Invested

$1,629.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$178.78

Record

55%

11947-9845 (21792)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Filippo Romano

Invested

$1,326.67

Value

$650.53

PnL

-$676.14

Record

53%

12198-10936 (23134)

thestingsnakeCTR

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$112.99

Value

$272.46

PnL

+$163.42

Record

60%

3519-2392 (5911)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Filippo Romano

Invested

$367.07

Value

$196.18

PnL

+$25.55

Record

52%

518-484 (1002)

Both legs:

Filippo Romano$159.0160.3¢-$11.18

Michele Ribecai$45.8129.6¢+$36.72

Kev69

Filippo Romano

Invested

$207.54

Value

$98.58

PnL

-$108.96

Record

56%

537-414 (951)

RN1<$100

Filippo Romano

Invested

$87.55

Value

$83.17

PnL

-$4.38

Record

55%

43396-35692 (79088)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Filippo Romano

Invested

$40.8

Value

$38.76

PnL

+$0.51

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

tradecraft<$100

Filippo Romano

Invested

$20.06

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$7.52

Record

52%

5500-5106 (10606)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Michele Ribecai

Invested

$4.81

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$5.06

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralFilippo Romano at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Filippo Romano

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filippo Romano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.