Guayaquil: Lucio Ratti vs Mateo Del Pino

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lucio Ratti (60%) · Lucio Ratti at 95¢ · $608 held · ends Nov 2

Lucio Ratti95¢Mateo Del Pino5¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucio Ratti

Consensus Traders

Lucio Ratti 60%

Total Value

$608.22

Combined PnL

$2.59

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 94.8¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucio Ratti at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucio Ratti

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lucio Ratti95%

Mateo Del Pino5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucio Ratti3 traders

Total Value$569.37

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$3.51

Mateo Del Pino2 traders

Total Value$38.85

Total Shares971

Combined PnL-$0.92

Lucio Ratti — 60%Mateo Del Pino — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lucio Rattiavg 95.9¢	$427.62	$424.97	-$2.65	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
EF efntrick	Lucio Rattiavg 94¢	$126.04	$132.2	+$6.16	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
RN1CTR<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 4.1¢	$21.32	$20.8	-$0.52	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Mateo Del Pinoavg 4.1¢	$18.45	$18.05	-$0.4	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lucio Rattiavg 93¢	$14.3	$12.2	-$0	58% 37843-27569 (65412)

HomeRunHazard

Lucio Ratti

Invested

$427.62

Value

$424.97

PnL

-$2.65

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

efntrick

Lucio Ratti

Invested

$126.04

Value

$132.2

PnL

+$6.16

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

RN1CTR<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$21.32

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Mateo Del Pino

Invested

$18.45

Value

$18.05

PnL

-$0.4

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lucio Ratti

Invested

$14.3

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

Research grade

NeutralLucio Ratti at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lucio Ratti

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucio Ratti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.