Brest: Lucas Poullain vs Matisse Bobichon

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lucas Poullain (50%) · Lucas Poullain at 64¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 2

Lucas Poullain64¢Matisse Bobichon36¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucas Poullain

Consensus Traders

Lucas Poullain 50%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

$384.74

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 63.5¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucas Poullain at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucas Poullain

5 of 10 top traders (50%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lucas Poullain64%

Matisse Bobichon37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucas Poullain5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares9,429

Combined PnL+$78.94

Matisse Bobichon5 traders

Total Value$950.85

Total Shares2,766

Combined PnL+$305.8

Lucas Poullain — 50%Matisse Bobichon — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 72.3¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$298.71	65% 243-133 (376)
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 23.2¢	$1.5K	$4.1K	+$2.6K
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 72.3¢	$4.8K	$2.5K	$-2.3K
EF efntrickARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 69.3¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$59.63	48% 3567-3817 (7384)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 69.3¢	$4.1K	$3.8K	-$343.27
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 29.7¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$283.64
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 70.6¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$26.34	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 70.6¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$289.64
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 30.8¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$263.3
YE yesmate	Lucas Poullainavg 70.1¢	$3.3K	$3.8K	+$489.15	52% 346-320 (666)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Lucas Poullainavg 78.7¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$65.23	68% 194-93 (287)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18ARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 73.4¢	$5.0K	$2.0K	-$303.44	67% 504-250 (754)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 73.4¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$443.79
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 25¢	$305.11	$445.46	+$140.35
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 60.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$91.78	50% 17388-17711 (35099)
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 35.3¢	$355.47	$623.92	+$268.45
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 60.1¢	$979.47	$619.23	-$360.23
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 66.6¢	$821.62	$925.55	+$103.93	53% 13162-11646 (24808)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 66.6¢	$564.63	$601.52	+$36.88
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 23¢	$256.99	$324.03	+$67.04
HO HomeRunHazard	Lucas Poullainavg 58.5¢	$807.19	$523.95	-$283.24	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
RN1CTR	Matisse Bobichonavg 23¢	$344.25	$438.04	+$93.79	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
poshposhCTR	Matisse Bobichonavg 25.1¢	$98.91	$244.14	+$145.23	61% 8640-5569 (14209)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Matisse Bobichonavg 22.5¢	$463.99	$132.53	-$2.43	60% 3805-2576 (6381)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 25.9¢	$32.29	$77.15	+$44.86	60% 27537-18513 (46050)
BE berlinskies	Lucas Poullainavg 73¢	$126.59	$65.85	-$60.74	57% 5520-4086 (9606)
HRTradingARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 78¢	$63.51	$61.67	-$1.84	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 78¢	$45.43	$41.65	-$3.78
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 25.7¢	$18.08	$20.02	+$1.94
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Matisse Bobichonavg 32¢	$108.24	$58.99	+$24.35	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
PA pauleta23<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 72.8¢	$40	$38.99	-$1.01	67% 22101-10723 (32824)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$6,359.2

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$298.71

Record

65%

243-133 (376)

Both legs:

Matisse Bobichon$1,542.7323.2¢+$2.6K

Lucas Poullain$4,816.4672.3¢$-2.3K

efntrickARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$5,329.35

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$59.63

Record

48%

3567-3817 (7384)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$4,097.2469.3¢-$343.27

Matisse Bobichon$1,232.129.7¢+$283.64

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$4,324.89

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$26.34

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$2,887.5770.6¢-$289.64

Matisse Bobichon$1,437.3230.8¢+$263.3

yesmate

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$3,286.41

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$489.15

Record

52%

346-320 (666)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$3,011.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$65.23

Record

68%

194-93 (287)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18ARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$4,989.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$303.44

Record

67%

504-250 (754)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$1,774.273.4¢-$443.79

Matisse Bobichon$305.1125¢+$140.35

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$1,334.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$91.78

Record

50%

17388-17711 (35099)

Both legs:

Matisse Bobichon$355.4735.3¢+$268.45

Lucas Poullain$979.4760.1¢-$360.23

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$821.62

Value

$925.55

PnL

+$103.93

Record

53%

13162-11646 (24808)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$564.6366.6¢+$36.88

Matisse Bobichon$256.9923¢+$67.04

HomeRunHazard

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$807.19

Value

$523.95

PnL

-$283.24

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

RN1CTR

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$344.25

Value

$438.04

PnL

+$93.79

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

poshposhCTR

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$98.91

Value

$244.14

PnL

+$145.23

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

thestingsnakeCTR

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$463.99

Value

$132.53

PnL

-$2.43

Record

60%

3805-2576 (6381)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$32.29

Value

$77.15

PnL

+$44.86

Record

60%

27537-18513 (46050)

berlinskies

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$126.59

Value

$65.85

PnL

-$60.74

Record

57%

5520-4086 (9606)

HRTradingARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$63.51

Value

$61.67

PnL

-$1.84

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$45.4378¢-$3.78

Matisse Bobichon$18.0825.7¢+$1.94

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$108.24

Value

$58.99

PnL

+$24.35

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

pauleta23<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$40

Value

$38.99

PnL

-$1.01

Record

67%

22101-10723 (32824)

Research grade

NeutralLucas Poullain at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Lucas Poullain

5 of 10 top traders (50%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucas Poullain wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.