Ningbo: Mili Poljicak vs Yuta Shimizu

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Mili Poljicak (82%) · Mili Poljicak at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Mili Poljicak51¢Yuta Shimizu49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mili Poljicak

Consensus Traders

Mili Poljicak 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$72.2

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 50.5¢

-6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMili Poljicak at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mili Poljicak

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mili Poljicak51%

Yuta Shimizu50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yuta Shimizu2 traders

Total Value$932.59

Total Shares1,826

Combined PnL-$55.07

Mili Poljicak9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,630

Combined PnL-$17.13

Yuta Shimizu — 18%Mili Poljicak — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 58¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$134.33	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
└ Mili Poljicak leg	Mili Poljicakavg 58¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$254
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 44.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$119.67
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yuta Shimizuavg 51.3¢	$982.27	$927.49	-$54.77	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
tradecraft	Mili Poljicakavg 72¢	$528.6	$523.82	-$4.78	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Mili Poljicakavg 43¢	$456.7	$440.77	-$15.93	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 49.2¢	$904.96	$157.17	-$374.76	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 49.2¢	$133.54	$93.63	-$365.46
└ Mili Poljicak leg	Mili Poljicakavg 68.6¢	$66.57	$63.54	-$9.3
BI BillBenter2026	Mili Poljicakavg 60.8¢	$126.6	$131.52	+$4.92	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Mili Poljicakavg 47¢	$118.34	$120.85	+$2.52	50% 2131-2131 (4262)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 49¢	$98.94	$96.92	-$2.02	63% 1650-987 (2637)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 49¢	$58.8	$58.2	-$0.6	50% 3521-3537 (7058)
PA pauleta23<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 55.9¢	$30	$28.18	-$1.82	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
0xheavy888<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 49¢	$14.7	$14.4	-$0.3	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
HRTrading<$100	Mili Poljicakavg 46.4¢	$9.16	$10.05	+$0.89	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 27¢	$5.4	$5.1	-$0.3	59% 2648-1819 (4467)

efntrickARB<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$3,713.53

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$134.33

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

Both legs:

Mili Poljicak$2,263.4758¢-$254

Yuta Shimizu$1,450.0744.8¢+$119.67

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$982.27

Value

$927.49

PnL

-$54.77

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

tradecraft

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$528.6

Value

$523.82

PnL

-$4.78

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$456.7

Value

$440.77

PnL

-$15.93

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$904.96

Value

$157.17

PnL

-$374.76

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

Both legs:

Yuta Shimizu$133.5449.2¢-$365.46

Mili Poljicak$66.5768.6¢-$9.3

BillBenter2026

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$126.6

Value

$131.52

PnL

+$4.92

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$118.34

Value

$120.85

PnL

+$2.52

Record

50%

2131-2131 (4262)

0x1111111111<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$98.94

Value

$96.92

PnL

-$2.02

Record

63%

1650-987 (2637)

NatoAlfista<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$58.8

Value

$58.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

3521-3537 (7058)

pauleta23<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$30

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$1.82

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

0xheavy888<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

HRTrading<$100

Mili Poljicak

Invested

$9.16

Value

$10.05

PnL

+$0.89

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

59%

2648-1819 (4467)

Research grade

NeutralMili Poljicak at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Mili Poljicak

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mili Poljicak wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.